The cost of jet fuel is falling, but not that of airfares. In fact, for those who postponed their bookings in the hope that the easing of geopolitical tensions would lead to lower fares, the result has been the opposite.
The current jet fuel price of $119.13/bbl is lower than the average price a month ago, specifically the week of June 5 when the weekly average price peaked at $146.25/bbl. In April and May 2026, there were dire warnings of airlines running out of jet fuel, especially in Europe and Asia. So, what’s the current situation?
The jet fuel crisis in Europe and Asia is no longer defined by immediate supply shortages, but rather by systemic vulnerabilities. While proactive measures have prevented widespread grounded flights, elevated costs continue to impact the aviation sector.
Disclaimer: This helpful post contains some affiliate links. If you click on any of the links in this post (AND make a purchase) I may receive a small commission at absolutely no cost to you. As such I thank you in advance should you decide to click & buy.
Page Contents
Europe managed to fend off jet fuel crisis
Europe has been able to adapt surprisingly well to the loss of big chunks of its jet fuel supply, increasing its imports from the U.S. and other producers, boosting its domestic production and hastening the rollout of renewables.
The International Energy Agency’s had predicted in April that Europe’s fuel supplies would run out by late May, but this has not borne out. Europe was able to replace lost Gulf supplies by increasing U.S. imports of jet fuel by nearly 5 times between February and May.
The initial jet fuel price jump and supply worries prompted many European carriers to increase surcharges and cancel unprofitable routes during spring of 2026.
Recent response from European airlines
Routes served by full-service carriers, such as British Airways, Air France-KLM and Aegean, have seen the most significant fare increases. On routes dominated by low-cost carriers, such as Ryanair, EasyJet and Wizz Air, fare increases are more modest, and in some cases price reductions are observed.
EU’s energy department, warned diplomats late last month that jet fuel stockpiles might start to feel some pressure by autumn — depending how the summer pans out. One senior Commission official warned that prices could be in their “full swing” by summer and from September if demand reduction isn’t carried out.
Response from US Airlines
The U.S., which initiated the war in Iran with Israel, had been the most insulated from the jet fuel shortage, but it was not immune. Earlier in the year, many airlines had spiked airfares and canceled many shorter-duration and less popular flight offerings.
Buoyed by sustained travel demand and a tighter market — driven by the collapse of budget carrier Spirit Airlines — airlines have stuck with the inflated prices. “I’m actually very bullish that the industry will retain a much higher percent of the fare increases than would be typical historically,” Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan told investors in May.
Another reason fares remain high is limited seat capacity. Airlines cut flights during the conflict when fuel prices surged, and many haven’t restored them. Major U.S. airlines are planning little to no route expansion this quarter because demand remains strong. Historically, airlines have added flights as fuel prices fall. This time, many appear content to keep capacity tight.
Response from Asian airlines
Asian travellers could see some relief from high airfares in the coming weeks as jet fuel prices ease. But analysts predict cheaper tickets will emerge unevenly, with budget carriers likely to move faster than full-service airlines.
AirAsia had cut 10 per cent of its flight capacity and suspended underperforming routes because of soaring fuel costs, but now expects to fully restore capacity by the end of August. In terms of restoring flight capacity, AirAsia is being selective and would not automatically reinstate unprofitable routes cut during the fuel crisis.
Full-service carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, ANA, Korean Air and Japan Airlines would remain focused on maintaining critical international connectivity rather than rolling out discounts.
What we are more likely to see from network carriers is a quiet rollback of fuel surcharges imposed during the peak crisis period, which achieves a similar effect for consumers without the optics of a formal fare cut. Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific said this week it would lower fuel surcharges on most passenger flights for the second time in less than 2 months.
Summary: What this means for travelers
Flight prices are high in 2026 because of restricted airspace, increased travel demand, and airline capacity constraints.
Higher Air Ticket Prices: The fall in fuel prices has, at least for the time being, not altered the airlines’ pricing policies. Demand for air travel remains high, particularly in the European and American markets. And reduced competitive pressure on certain routes – partly due to the exit from the market of operators such as Spirit Airlines in the United States – is helping to strengthen the airlines’ pricing power.
Demand for rail travel: Demand for rail travel in Europe remains incredibly high. Driven by flight uncertainty, a desire for sustainable travel, and airport bottlenecks, passenger volumes for operators like Eurostar have surged to record numbers
Travel closer to home: British holidaymakers are now looking at destinations closer to home in southern Europe, including France, Spain, and Greece, instead of going long-haul. Some are even looking to travel within the UK itself.
What are your holiday plans for 2026? Share with us in the comments below.
Join me on Instagram, Pinterest and Facebook as I share my travel experiences.