In April and early May 2026, there were dire warnings of European airlines running out of jet fuel. So, what’s the current situation? Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply crisis and major flight disruptions in the coming weeks. Industry leaders (from both airlines and government agencies) have downplayed fears of widespread grounded flights, reassuring travelers that peak summer bookings demand can be met.
The core reason is a hike in prices, which encouraged refiners and traders to redirect fuel cargoes toward Europe, helping offset lost Gulf supplies. However, flight fares will reflect the higher operational costs. Let’s deep dive whether your summer travel plans would be fine.
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Core Factors driving the jet fuel crisis
The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the U.S. resulted in de facto blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. This choked off maritime routes has halted roughly 20% of global oil flows and cut off Middle Eastern exports that historically supplied up to 75% of Europe’s imported jet fuel.
With the loss of regional Gulf supplies, commercial jet fuel prices doubled to peak around $187 per barrel in early May before settling to about $162 a barrel. As and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it would take months before the oil supply can go back to pre-war levels.
Response from European airlines, Travel operators
As fuel costs form around 20 to 40% of an airline’s operating costs, many are now offloading those costs by increasing surcharges and canceling unprofitable routes. The initial jet fuel price jump and supply worries prompted some airlines like Scandinavia’s SAS and Lufthansa to cut thousands of short-haul flights that were no longer profitable.
Lufthansa CEO said the company’s fuel supplies were secured at least to early summer (mid-July). He added that half of the jet fuel that comes from Middle East had been replaced with fuel from other sources, with the rest drawn from reserves.
Major low-cost carriers like Ryanair secured long-term fuel hedges (around $67 per barrel through early 2027), which is preventing immediate impacts on their bottom line or ticket pricing. Ryanair boss said he is now confident that rising fuel imports from West Africa, the U.S. and Norway are making up for reduced volumes from the Middle East.
EasyJet’s chief executive has stated that passengers should not be concerned about their bookings, as the airline has experienced no problems with fuel availability. IAG – which owns British Airways, Aer Lingus and Iberia of Spain – is talking of ‘pricing adjustments to reflect these higher fuel costs’. Virgin Atlantic is adding fuel surcharges to fares but will still struggle to return to profitability this year.
Air France-KLM group said it planned to increase long-haul ticket prices to address surging fuel costs. KLM cancelled over 150 short-haul European flights due to the rising cost of jet fuel. TAP, the Portuguese airline said its price hikes would partially mitigate the impact of fuel price changes on its revenue.
Britain’s biggest holiday company Jet2, has reassured customers that it has ample fuel and will not impose surcharges. Europe’s largest tour operator TUI reassured holidaymakers that peak summer flights will go ahead.
Airport operators have also built up reserves, with an over 60% increase in jet fuel stocks in April, according to aviation fuel tech firm i6 Group. European refiners like Spain’s Repsol have also ramped up production, with the company saying it planned to increase jet fuel output by 15 – 20 %.
Response from US Airlines
The U.S., which initiated the war in Iran with Israel, may be the most insulated from the jet fuel shortage, but it is not immune. U.S. airlines have spiked airfares and they are canceling many shorter-duration and less popular flight offerings.
Delta said it would cut capacity by around 3.5 % points from its original plan and raise fees for checked bags in an attempt to offset soaring jet fuel costs.
United Airlines CEO said ticket prices may need to rise by as much as 15 to 20 % to offset a surge in jet fuel costs. The company already instated 5 fare increases late in the first quarter, along with higher baggage fees, which it said have started to offset rising fuel costs.
Southwest Airlines said it would hike checked baggage fees by $10 for the first and second bags, raising costs to $45 for the first bag and $55 for the second.
Response from Government agencies
The European Commission launched emergency coordination frameworks like Accelerate EU to map out and share remaining regional reserves. It has clarified that airlines will not be required to pay passenger compensation IF fuel shortages mandate cancellations.
The International Energy Agency stated in May that global oil supply will not meet demand this year as the conflict wreaks havoc on Middle East production. This is in contrast to what most European airlines are publicly stating in late May.
What this means for travelers
As the US Iran negotiations are still on and the Strait of Hormuz is currently blocked, this situation is still evolving. The current impact on travelers is significant for 2026 summer plans is as follows –
Higher Ticket Prices: Airlines are passing operational costs to consumers through elevated fares and specific ticket surcharges.
Flight Consolidation: Airlines are preemptively trimming schedules; for example, Lufthansa cut 20,000 short-haul flights to conserve resources.
Alternative Travel: Consumer demand for European rail travel has spiked significantly as holidaymakers look for predictable, land-based alternatives. Eurostar tickets to France purchased by U.K. residents soared 42% in April, compared with a month prior, and were up 25% year-on-year,
Travel closer to home: British holidaymakers are now looking at destinations closer to home in southern Europe, including France, Spain, and Greece, instead of going long-haul. Some are even looking to travel within the UK itself.
Summary
European airlines, and tour operators are currently striking a bullish tone on jet fuel supply. The US Iran conflict choking the oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz is still on. Airlines have secured jet fuel from other sources (at a much higher price) plus Airport operators have also built up reserves. However, there are still concerns about fuel supplies by early fall if the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don’t return to normal levels.
Current analysis is that while your summer plans are still secure, be prepared to pay much higher prices for flights. This combined with the impact on short-term rentals due to EU regulations will make your summer holiday costs much higher.
What are your summer holiday travel plans for 2026? Share with us in the comments below.
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